生成时间
06/02/2026, 04:28 PM EDT
Probability Board
全队概率榜
48 支球队同屏排队：谁像冠军相，谁是快乐陪跑，谁只差一场神仙球就能把模型脸打歪。概率每天 00:00 ET 更新，赛果锁定后进入下一版模拟。
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46
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All Teams
48 队完整概率
按夺冠概率排序。横条是冠军概率，不是膨胀的信心；它越长，说明模型越愿意把锅先背给这队。
| # | 球队 | 组 | 洲际 | 主路线 | 第1 | 第2 | 第3 | 进32 | 进16 | 进8 | 进4 | 决赛 | 夺冠 | 变化 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 🇫🇷FranceFRA | I | UEFA | 第168.1% | 68.1% | 22.6% | 6.1% | 96.8% | 80.8% | 62.6% | 46.0% | 29.9% | 19.2% | ↑ 19.2 |
| 2 | 🇪🇸SpainESP | H | UEFA | 第167.7% | 67.7% | 23.9% | 5.6% | 97.2% | 72.5% | 54.1% | 41.6% | 27.7% | 17.6% | ↑ 17.6 |
| 3 | 🇦🇷ArgentinaARG | J | CONMEBOL | 第172.9% | 72.9% | 19.0% | 5.4% | 97.4% | 70.1% | 56.0% | 42.4% | 28.2% | 17.3% | ↑ 17.3 |
| 4 | 🏴EnglandENG | L | UEFA | 第157.9% | 57.9% | 29.1% | 8.5% | 95.6% | 73.5% | 51.7% | 33.8% | 19.8% | 10.7% | ↑ 10.7 |
| 5 | 🇵🇹PortugalPOR | K | UEFA | 第154.2% | 54.2% | 30.6% | 9.2% | 94.0% | 62.1% | 39.9% | 20.7% | 10.4% | 4.6% | ↑ 4.6 |
| 6 | 🇧🇷BrazilBRA | C | CONMEBOL | 第146.6% | 46.6% | 36.4% | 10.9% | 93.9% | 59.4% | 39.1% | 20.8% | 10.0% | 4.4% | ↑ 4.4 |
| 7 | 🇲🇦MoroccoMAR | C | CAF | 第144.6% | 44.6% | 37.7% | 11.2% | 93.5% | 58.2% | 38.1% | 19.7% | 9.4% | 4.1% | ↑ 4.1 |
| 8 | 🇳🇱NetherlandsNED | F | UEFA | 第156.1% | 56.1% | 27.7% | 9.6% | 93.4% | 54.2% | 37.4% | 18.7% | 8.9% | 4.0% | ↑ 4.0 |
| 9 | 🇧🇪BelgiumBEL | G | UEFA | 第155.3% | 55.3% | 27.8% | 11.3% | 94.3% | 67.2% | 39.6% | 18.1% | 8.3% | 3.3% | ↑ 3.3 |
| 10 | 🇩🇪GermanyGER | E | UEFA | 第157.4% | 57.4% | 26.8% | 10.5% | 94.8% | 65.3% | 30.1% | 15.9% | 6.9% | 2.7% | ↑ 2.7 |
| 11 | 🇭🇷CroatiaCRO | L | UEFA | 第242.2% | 32.3% | 42.2% | 15.4% | 89.8% | 55.4% | 29.5% | 14.9% | 6.3% | 2.3% | ↑ 2.3 |
| 12 | 🇸🇳SenegalSEN | I | CAF | 第243.4% | 22.0% | 43.4% | 17.5% | 82.9% | 51.5% | 25.9% | 11.5% | 4.4% | 1.5% | ↑ 1.5 |
| 13 | 🇨🇴ColombiaCOL | K | CONMEBOL | 第239.5% | 35.3% | 39.5% | 13.7% | 88.5% | 47.8% | 24.9% | 11.0% | 4.3% | 1.4% | ↑ 1.4 |
| 14 | 🇲🇽MexicoMEX | A | CONCACAF | 第152.7% | 52.7% | 27.7% | 11.4% | 91.8% | 60.5% | 25.8% | 10.7% | 4.0% | 1.3% | ↑ 1.3 |
| 15 | 🇺🇸USAUSA | D | CONCACAF | 第143.4% | 43.4% | 27.6% | 14.7% | 85.7% | 51.4% | 23.5% | 8.8% | 3.2% | 1.1% | ↑ 1.1 |
| 16 | 🇺🇾UruguayURU | H | CONMEBOL | 第249.3% | 25.3% | 49.3% | 13.9% | 88.6% | 38.3% | 19.6% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 1.00% | ↑ 1.0 |
| 17 | 🇯🇵JapanJPN | F | AFC | 第237.3% | 29.9% | 37.3% | 16.0% | 83.3% | 36.6% | 19.1% | 7.1% | 2.4% | 0.73% | ↑ 0.7 |
| 18 | 🇨🇭SwitzerlandSUI | B | UEFA | 第153.8% | 53.8% | 27.3% | 11.1% | 92.1% | 55.0% | 23.1% | 7.8% | 2.6% | 0.70% | ↑ 0.7 |
| 19 | 🇮🇷IR IranIRN | G | AFC | 第235.8% | 26.0% | 35.8% | 22.6% | 84.4% | 45.0% | 17.1% | 5.4% | 1.6% | 0.38% | ↑ 0.4 |
| 20 | 🇪🇨EcuadorECU | E | CONMEBOL | 第236.6% | 25.0% | 36.6% | 21.6% | 83.1% | 38.2% | 12.0% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.22% | ↑ 0.2 |
| 21 | 🇹🇷TürkiyeTUR | D | UEFA | 第227.8% | 24.6% | 27.8% | 19.8% | 72.3% | 33.6% | 12.1% | 3.6% | 0.97% | 0.22% | ↑ 0.2 |
| 22 | 🇰🇷Korea RepublicKOR | A | AFC | 第233.7% | 27.8% | 33.7% | 18.1% | 79.6% | 41.9% | 12.9% | 3.6% | 0.95% | 0.22% | ↑ 0.2 |
| 23 | 🇦🇹AustriaAUT | J | UEFA | 第237.4% | 13.5% | 37.4% | 22.4% | 73.4% | 24.7% | 9.7% | 3.1% | 0.81% | 0.18% | ↑ 0.2 |
| 24 | 🇪🇬EgyptEGY | G | CAF | 第230.6% | 17.3% | 30.6% | 28.1% | 75.9% | 33.8% | 10.6% | 2.7% | 0.62% | 0.14% | ↑ 0.1 |
| 25 | 🇦🇺AustraliaAUS | D | AFC | 第226.7% | 21.6% | 26.7% | 19.8% | 68.2% | 29.7% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 0.67% | 0.14% | ↑ 0.1 |
| 26 | 🇨🇦CanadaCAN | B | CONCACAF | 第234.7% | 28.6% | 34.7% | 17.7% | 81.1% | 36.9% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 0.61% | 0.12% | ↑ 0.1 |
| 27 | 🇩🇿AlgeriaALG | J | CAF | 第232.4% | 11.0% | 32.4% | 23.8% | 67.1% | 20.9% | 7.6% | 2.1% | 0.51% | 0.10% | ↑ 0.1 |
| 28 | 🇨🇮Côte d'IvoireCIV | E | CAF | 第229.7% | 15.6% | 29.7% | 27.4% | 72.7% | 26.4% | 6.8% | 1.7% | 0.32% | 0.07% | ↑ 0.1 |
| 29 | 🇵🇦PanamaPAN | L | CONCACAF | 第330.2% | 8.1% | 21.7% | 30.2% | 60.1% | 19.8% | 6.4% | 1.6% | 0.33% | 0.07% | ↑ 0.1 |
| 30 | 🇳🇴NorwayNOR | I | UEFA | 第324.3% | 7.0% | 22.2% | 24.3% | 53.4% | 21.8% | 6.9% | 1.7% | 0.38% | 0.06% | ↑ 0.1 |
| 31 | 🇨🇿CzechiaCZE | A | UEFA | 第223.8% | 13.2% | 23.8% | 22.3% | 59.3% | 22.9% | 5.2% | 1.1% | 0.20% | 0.03% | ↑ 0.0 |
| 32 | 🏴ScotlandSCO | C | UEFA | 第331.1% | 7.1% | 19.5% | 31.1% | 57.7% | 14.8% | 4.4% | 0.89% | 0.15% | 0.03% | ↑ 0.0 |
| 33 | 🇵🇾ParaguayPAR | D | CONMEBOL | 第317.9% | 10.4% | 17.8% | 17.9% | 46.2% | 14.6% | 3.5% | 0.71% | 0.14% | 0.02% | ↑ 0.0 |
| 34 | 🇸🇪SwedenSWE | F | UEFA | 第321.6% | 8.0% | 19.5% | 21.6% | 49.1% | 13.7% | 4.1% | 0.81% | 0.14% | 0.02% | ↑ 0.0 |
| 35 | 🇹🇳TunisiaTUN | F | CAF | 第318.7% | 6.0% | 15.5% | 18.7% | 40.2% | 9.9% | 2.6% | 0.47% | 0.08% | 0.01% | ↑ 0.0 |
| 36 | 🇺🇿UzbekistanUZB | K | AFC | 第319.6% | 4.8% | 14.2% | 19.6% | 38.6% | 8.3% | 2.0% | 0.37% | 0.06% | 0.01% | ↑ 0.0 |
| 37 | 🇨🇩Congo DRCOD | K | CAF | 第321.3% | 5.7% | 15.7% | 21.3% | 42.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | 0.47% | 0.07% | 0.01% | ↑ 0.0 |
| 38 | 🇮🇶IraqIRQ | I | AFC | 第315.3% | 2.9% | 11.9% | 15.3% | 30.1% | 8.1% | 1.7% | 0.29% | 0.04% | 0.01% | ↑ 0.0 |
| 39 | 🇸🇦Saudi ArabiaKSA | H | AFC | 第322.8% | 4.2% | 15.6% | 22.8% | 42.6% | 7.9% | 1.7% | 0.26% | 0.03% | 0.01% | ↑ 0.0 |
| 40 | 🇿🇦South AfricaRSA | A | CAF | 第317.6% | 6.4% | 14.8% | 17.6% | 38.8% | 11.2% | 1.9% | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.01% | ↑ 0.0 |
| 41 | 🇶🇦QatarQAT | B | AFC | 第222.9% | 11.6% | 22.9% | 22.5% | 57.0% | 17.4% | 3.4% | 0.55% | 0.07% | 0.01% | ↑ 0.0 |
| 42 | 🇯🇴JordanJOR | J | AFC | 第313.3% | 2.6% | 11.1% | 13.3% | 27.0% | 4.8% | 0.85% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% | ↑ 0.0 |
| 43 | 🇧🇦Bosnia and HerzegovinaBIH | B | UEFA | 第317.5% | 6.0% | 15.1% | 17.5% | 38.5% | 8.6% | 1.3% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% | ↑ 0.0 |
| 44 | 🇨🇼CuraçaoCUW | E | CONCACAF | 第310.6% | 2.0% | 6.9% | 10.6% | 19.5% | 2.8% | 0.34% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ↑ 0.0 |
| 45 | 🇬🇭GhanaGHA | L | CAF | 第311.7% | 1.7% | 6.9% | 11.7% | 20.3% | 3.1% | 0.52% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% | ↑ 0.0 |
| 46 | 🇭🇹HaitiHAI | C | CONCACAF | 第311.5% | 1.7% | 6.4% | 11.5% | 19.6% | 2.5% | 0.34% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% | ↑ 0.0 |
| 47 | 🇨🇻Cabo VerdeCPV | H | CAF | 第317.3% | 2.8% | 11.2% | 17.3% | 31.2% | 4.9% | 0.88% | 0.13% | 0.01% | 0.00% | → |
| 48 | 🇳🇿New ZealandNZL | G | OFC | 第39.6% | 1.5% | 5.8% | 9.6% | 16.9% | 2.4% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% | → |